So last year was a terrible year in the emerging market debt,
but also broader fixed income that was driven by several
factors, including a rise in core rates, rising inflation,
the war between Russia and Ukraine and a few other factors.
We do believe, though, that some of these factors are going to
be less of an issue this year, including inflation, which is
already falling in many of the countries that we invest in.
But also, if you look in terms of total return, to the extent
that last year it was such a bad year, that translates
to a much higher year in terms of a starting
yield, so once we start the year with highly
elevated levels of yields, that tends to translate into
at least historically, into better prospects for total
return. Just because if you think in terms of fixed income,
fixed income basically is a couple of moving parts.
One is the yield, the other is the price behaviour
of a particular security.
So if you put it all together normally at this highly elevated
levels, you tend to have positive returns for subsequent
years, at least if you look historically, that has been the
case in terms of the hard currency there.
So for this year, we think that the asset class is going to
have a comeback. Some of the factors that I just mentioned
earlier, lowering inflation, also the global outlook
in terms of growth, we are not anticipating a major recession.
So that could be a goldilocks situation
for emerging markets, a good environment to the extent that the
economy is not in a recession, but at the same time inflation
is falling. So we think that emerging markets is going to see a
comeback. In fact, actually, we're starting to see finally
investors more interested in the asset class and inflows are
starting to resume again, which is normally a good barometer
for sentiment in general and how people are perceiving
the asset class.