2024 could be a very good
year for government bonds. Remember,
we've had two terrible
years for government bonds
2022, 2023 as
inflation was rising as
interest rates were rising. Now those
big dynamics are
likely to reverse in 2024.
So if the Fed is cutting
interest rates, if inflation is
under control, then
that makes having some duration
some long dated, high
quality government bonds in your
portfolio, really quite
important. So I think they'll do well
in that kind of environment. I
also think that higher quality corporate
bonds, i.e. companies
borrowing money through the bond
market, will do well as well
in that environment. So I want to
look for good quality
companies that have got lots of
cash available to them.
They've borrowed for a long time and are
able to withstand
what might be a fairly rocky
economic outlook for 2024.
First and foremost, given the
uncertain macroeconomic outlook,
we prefer investments that are
underpinned by structural drivers and
less exposed to
cyclical or economically sensitive
factors. We favour
long-term themes such as
infrastructure, the
low carbon ecosystem and
innovation, including
AI. Second, we continue to
believe that this is not a
market for directional macro calls,
but rather for selective stock
picking. As companies deal with a
high interest rate
and a positive real rate
environment,
weakening demand and relentless
innovation. They will
continue to be winners and
losers. In fact, the
last few quarterly earnings
seasons have shown a
significant divergence in company
results even within
the same sectors, and such
dispersion in fundamentals has been
reflected in stock performance. Since
2020, the dispersion in
price performance among stocks in the
MSCI All Country
World Index has been trending
above its ten year
median. We had a compression of
price performance in the
late summer autumn sell off, and we
see this as an
opportunity to put some capital to work.
In fact, the dispersion has
started to pick up again and we
believe will remain a
key driver of performance in
2024. In particular, at the moment,
we see timely opportunity in
some companies in the infrastructure
space as the fears for
higher for longer rates have brought
companies to multi-year
valuation lows, in the panic on
so-called bond
proxies. But a number of them
have solid fundamentals
and a strong demand outlook.
As always, we need to
remain selective, and proper research
and due diligence
remain essential, especially as
we are faced with an
uncertain macroeconomic outlook.
And yes, I do believe there
still are plenty of opportunities
ahead for active
investors.